UEFA European Championship predictions: Who will qualify for the knockout stages?

For the first time since 1988, when the country was still called West Germany and the Netherlands beat the Soviet Union 2-0 in the final, Germany will host the UEFA European Championships.

France and England enter as the favorites, but years past have shown that anything can happen in this tournament. Just look at Portugal defeating the hosts France in 2016 or Greece defeating the hosts Portugal in 2004.

As with most of the standard international tournaments, the top two teams of each group will qualify for the Round of 16. However, since the Euros expanded to 24 teams in 2016, the top four teams that finish in third place will also qualify for the knockout stages.

With that being said, here are my predictions for each group of the 2024 Euros.

Group A (Germany, Scotland, Hungary, Switzerland)

1st: Germany

Germany are the clear favorites to lead the group, and no evidence has been provided to disprove that theory. Hosting the tournament led to their automatic bid, so there’s a relatively small competitive sample size to go off of. However, they defeated both France and the Netherlands on March 23 and March 26, respectively. Either way, it’s their group to lose.

2nd: Scotland

Picking a runner-up in the group is a more challenging task, but after its performance in the qualifiers, Scotland is the right choice. It may seem unusual considering the other teams in the group, but in a qualifying group with Spain, Norway, and Georgia — two teams that made the tournament and one led by Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard — Scotland finished second. Not only that, it split the matches against the highly touted Spain squad, so it has shown it’s capable of competing with the top teams.

3rd: Hungary

Hungary finished on top of its group, albeit one that was relatively weak, which leads to questions about whether it can beat the big teams. They have yet to lose since Sept. 26, 2022, but Serbia is the toughest team it faced in that stretch, with a FIFA world ranking of 32. However, Hungary will still qualify to the knockout stage as one of the top third-place teams.

4th: Switzerland

In the 2020 Euros, played in the summer of 2021 due to the Covid-19 pandemic Switzerland shocked the world by overcoming a 3-1 deficit in the 80th minute and defeating reigning World Cup champions France 5-4 on penalty kicks. This year’s tournament will be much different for the Swiss, as they stumble into the tournament after a lackluster performance in their qualifying group. With four wins, five draws and one loss along with a second-place finish behind Romania, Switzerland will struggle to gain any momentum and will see an early exit in the Euros.

Group B (Spain, Italy, Croatia, Albania)

1st: Spain

Spain enters after finishing top of its qualifying group with seven wins and only one loss, and the team is one year removed from winning the 2023 Nations League Final over fellow Group B team Croatia. Look out for midfielders Rodri and Pedri to provide big impacts as well as 16-year-old winger Lamine Yamal and 21-year-old forward Nico Williams.

2nd: Italy

The past six years of Italian international soccer have been complicated — it shockingly failed to qualify for the 2018 World Cup, defeated England 3-2 on penalties in the 2020 Euro finals and missed qualification once again for the 2022 World Cup. Now in 2024, Italy will look to become back-to-back champs for the first time since Spain in 2008 and 2012.

3rd: Croatia

Finishing runners-up at the 2018 World Cup and third place in 2022 World Cup, Croatia likely enters its last tournament with Real Madrid legend and 2018 Ballon d’Or winner Luka Modric at the helm. With an aging squad surrounding him, a path to the knockout round is tough. However, they’ll almost certainly be one of the top four third-place finishers to qualify to the next round.

4th: Albania

Albania finished top of its group, and yet, its reward was entry into the “Group of Death.” Unless it pulls off a shocker, Albania will finish dead last and have an early exit in the tournament. A 1-0 defeat to Sweden on March 25, a team that failed to make the Euros, is a possible sign of bad things to come.

Group C (England, Denmark, Slovenia, Serbia)

1st: England

Along with France, England will be heavy favorites to hoist the trophy as the Three Lions enter the prime years of their golden generation. A fourth-place finish at the 2018 World Cup, runners-up at the 2020 Euros and a disappointing exit to France in the quarterfinals of the 2022 World Cup will most certainly hang in the minds of the English players as they enter this tournament. Finishing undefeated at the top of its qualifying group that featured Italy and Ukraine brings even more confidence to England’s chances of moving on.

Group D (France, Netherlands, Poland, Austria)

1st: France

France enters as favorites of a major international tournament for the fourth competition in a row. Big names such as forward Kylian Mbappé, midfielder Antoine Griezmann, and midfielder N’Golo Kanté aim to bring Les Bleus back to glory after a World Cup victory in 2018 and heartbreaking runners-up finish in 2022. France has not won the Euros since 2000, and with its loss to Portugal in the finals in 2016 still on their minds, the stacked squad will be a tough squad to stop.

2nd: Netherlands

The Netherlands finished second in their qualifying group, only behind France. The Dutch get a second chance against Les Bleus, who defeated the Netherlands in both matchups, but France will likely finish above them again. Headlined by defender Virgil Van Dijk, the Netherlands will aim to win their first European Championship since 1988.

3rd: Poland

In what could very likely be Robert Lewandowski’s final European Championship, Poland will aim to capitalize on the final years of the legendary striker’s career. A round of 16 placement in the 2022 World Cup is something for the squad to build upon, but a third-place finish in a group led by Albania and Czechia is not a good way to enter the Euros. It will be tough for Poland to move on to the next stage of the tournament, especially with the quality within its group.

4th: Austria

Only finishing one point behind Belgium in its qualifying group, Austria will not be a pushover to the other giants in the group. However, it will be tough for the squad to gain any traction as I predict they will finish last and exit the tournament in disappointment.

Group E (Belgium, Romania, Ukraine, Slovakia)

1st: Belgium

Belgium enter with likely the easiest path to the knockout stages on paper, but in reality, the path will be much harder. The Belgian golden era has likely passed, with winger Eden Hazard retired and midfielder Kevin De Bruyne and striker Romelu Lukaku in their early 30s. Even still, the strength of its group will likely allow Belgium to finish first.

2nd: Romania

Romania enters the tournament following a very successful qualifying campaign. It finished first in its group, racking up six wins, four draws and zero defeats. It will be close at the top with Belgium and Ukraine just behind them, but I believe Romania will ultimately move on to the knockout stages in its first major international competition since 2016.

3rd: Ukraine

With one of the most intriguing squads in the whole tournament, Ukraine will be a sleeper pick to make a deep run in the tournament. Breakout star forward Artem Dovbyk, who won the Golden Boot in La Liga with 24 goals, will lead a forward line with wingers Mykhailo Mudryk and Viktor Tsyhankov, and Real Madrid goalkeeper Andriy Lunin will solidify the defense following a campaign with 10 clean sheets and only 17 goals conceded in 21 La Liga games.

4th: Slovakia

Slovakia made it to the round of 16 in the 2016 Euros with a squad led by midfielder Marek Hamšík, one of the best players in its history. Hamšík is now a part of the management of the national team following his retirement from playing, but not even his tutelage will get Slovakia to the next round of the knockout stages.

Group F (Portugal, Türkiye, Czechia, Georgia)

1st: Portugal

The Euro 2016 winners enter the competition with the odd question of whether Cristiano Ronaldo will start for the team. Portugal’s matches in the knockout stages of the 2022 World Cup both featured Ronaldo on the bench, but the 39-year-old has started five of Portugal’s past six games. Key forwards Rafael Leão and João Félix and midfielders Bernardo Silva and Bruno Fernandes bring more quality to the team that will allow for Portugal to calmly walk to the top of the group.

2nd: Türkiye

Despite qualifying for both the 2016 and 2020 Euros, Türkiye has failed to generate any success in major tournaments since its third-place finish at the 2002 World Cup and semi-final appearance at the 2008 Euros. Nevertheless, captain midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu and youngster Arda Güler will look to bring Türkiye back to the knockout stages for the first time since the 2008 tournament.

3rd: Czechia

Quarter-final appearances in the 2012 and 2020 Euros bring hope for Czechia, but it will be a tough uphill climb for the team to reach even a third Euros knockout stage in four years. The squad will rely heavily on midfielder Tomáš Souček, who provided three goals in the final three qualifying matches to help Czechia finish second in its group.

4th: Georgia

Georgia will be competing in its first European Championship following a victory on penalties over Greece. The match did not feature winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, who will look to take on a big role with the squad. The obvious goal is to replicate the recent success of Wales in 2016, who reached the semi-finals in their debut in the tournament, but for a squad such as Georgia, a qualification to the knockout stages should be the first matter at hand.

UEFA European Championship predictions: Who will qualify for the knockout stages? - The Hoosier Network (2024)